All posts by Safi

Why do autocracies matter, and what can we do?

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Why do autocracies matter, and what can we do?

 

Mbutu. US interventions in state building

From Chile to DR Congo, from Iran to Somalia and beyond, the United States and its allies have long sought to support statebuilding in closed-order countries.

The concentration of power in the hands of a limited elite, it is argued, results in governments that are unable to discharge their basic functions. These countries are at a high risk of internal conflict, sectarian violence and some of the worst human rights abuses. While it is the citizens of these countries that suffer the most, many of these states as fragile- if not already failed -are permissive environments for the growth of extremist groups that use violence globally in the pursuit of their aims. They can be sources of regional instability, creating large-scale displacements of people, distorting regional economies and effecting power balances. These states also suck up international attention and assistance and divert it away from countries where the government is willing to be responsive to and invest in its people.

Until they no longer hold our attention.

The result of our support in statebuilding in these countries has been varied; useless at best, and counterproductive at worst. We’ve had long term military and development investments in countries that have since disintegrated into or are on the brink of civil war. At other times, we’ve propped up the wrong rulers, in the wrong ways, in our efforts to ensure stability.

What are our range of options for supporting statebuilding in these places?

Professor Stephen Krasner of Stanford releases a new Atlantic Council strategy paper tomorrow. I’ll be joining Professor Krasner and Ambassador James B. Cunningham, talking about why statebuilding in these countries matters and how we can employ a more effective approach.

Join us tomorrow in person, or click here for live streaming of the discussion.

What happens when refugees are forced to go home?

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In the latest turn in the refugee crisis prior to today’s EU-Turkey summit in Brussels, Macedonian border officials have started profiling arrivals (in addition to beating them) and denying entry to those they deem not to come from war –afflicted cities and provinces. They are operating, allegedly, without authority, and outside international law.

Limiting intake seems logical on the face of it. But have you ever wondered what happens when migrants are forced to return  to the war and destruction they were fleeing?

We met with officials, local groups and spoke with refugee reintegration organizations in Afghanistan, where the number of ‘forced returns’ grew rapidly in the past year. We found that Afghan forced returnees face food insecurity and exposure to ongoing violence, and are at increased risk of joining insurgent groups.  Forcing migrants back into wars is simply not a solution, and can fuel further insecurity and displacement.

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Democratic Presidential Debate: Where do they stand on Syria and other foreign policy issues?

It was a warm evening as I headed out last night to watch the Democratic presidential debate, where candidates pit their positions and wit against each other. The restaurant in Dupont Circle was full of young couples on a quintessential DC date, groups of work friends and lone politicos. “I’ll take you to a typical DC party” Melanie, working for Care International, had told her colleague Dotti from Gap, who was visiting from San Francisco. I sat at a long table opposite my new friends for the evening, drinking happy hour cabernet while the debate opened to an eager crowd in a party-like atmosphere.

A couple of business cards made their way down to me from the other end of the table. The cards had several ‘bingo’ words penned on them; “You have to drink whenever they mention Benghazi” I was instructed.

I bet Hillary wished she could do the same.

Unsurprisingly, Benghazi was mentioned a few times. Worryingly, there was little substantive debate about the US in Syria, Iraq, or in Afghanistan. So where do the democrat presidential candidates stand on Syria and other foreign policy issues? Here’s a summary of what they mentioned (and didn’t mention) during the debate concerning Syria, US involvement in wars, threats to national security, Afghanistan and global inequalities:

 

Presidential debate

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Solution or Part of the Problem? External Processing of Refugees

Overwhelmed by the need to process quickly the growing numbers of asylum-seekers, the USA and European countries have expressed an interest in ‘external processing’ of asylum claims.  This would involve establishing asylum processing centres in other countries, either in third party countries that are transit destinations for refugees- such north Africa for those headed to Europe.  Or as the United States has already started to do, process claims in sending countries such as El Salvador and Honduras, from which the majority of unaccompanied minors entering the US originate their journeys.

External  processing, its claimed, can help provide safe pathways for asylum seekers to reach their target countries, avoiding the hazardous journeys they often take, as well enabling their claims to be processed more quickly and at a smaller cost. The Australian experience, however, provides us a disturbing warning of the ways in which external processing can fall foul of a state’s humanitarian and human rights obligations and add further injury to those who are seeking refuge from violence and persecution.

External processing of Refugees can compromise humanitarian and human rights obligations

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Preaching to the Unconverted? What will Pope Francis say on the refugee crisis and immigration reform?

The jovial happy-chap demeanor of Pope Francis barely hides the skilled orator who packs a hard-hitting intellectual and social punch.Having steered away from head-on ‘culture-clash’ statements on issues such as abortion and contraception, Pope Francis is focusing on pushing out the Vatican’s informed position on a range of current, social challenges. Some of these, however, are no less controversial in today’s America: climate change and immigration, for example. But he is still likely to tackle these issues in his usual truth-to-power style.

We look at what Pope Francis is likely to say about the refugee crisis and immigration reform during his US visit.

 

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Kenya: time for a new approach after al Shabab Garissa attack

History repeats.

Kenya: 142 civilians dead.

Even writing about it is painful. As parents of the students at Garissa and the public in Kenya are mourning the dead in Easter vigils, they are likely to be feeling a mix of emotions.  One of them is anger.

A growing number of attacks have been perpetrated by al Shabab since 2011 on military targets, security forces, political figures and civilians in Kenya . And despite proclamations to the contrary by top Kenyan politicians, the media is saying that little has changed in the Kenyan government’s response.

But even more worrying than the public anger towards the slow response by the Kenyan security forces to the intelligence and the latest attack, is the growing communal tensions that al Shabab attacks are fueling. Unless the Kenyan government is visible in employing a different approach, the massacre at the university in Garissa and the government response  is likely to stoke the divides even further and contribute to the increasing marginalization of Muslim communities in the country.

 

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Will al Qaeda and violent extremism win as airstrikes continue in Yemen?

 

Yemen why we should care

This morning at least 29 people died when an IDP camp for Yemenis who had fled from their homes due to conflict was hit by an airstrike.

The Houthis blame the Saudi-Arabian led gulf coalition. President Hadi’s administration blamed Houthi fighters. Meanwhile, the airstrikes against Houthi bases which began wednesday after the Houthis  proceeded toward Aden have continued, with some commentators saying  a proxy war is being played out between the region’s and world’s powers.

We know who are the inevitable losers of this latest conflict- ordinary Yemeni people, many of whom are already impoverished. And there is already a winner emerging: violent extremist group al Qaeda in the Arab Peninsula, and potentially also ISIS.

Continue reading Will al Qaeda and violent extremism win as airstrikes continue in Yemen?